AGP Executive Report

Iraq’s Anti-ISIS Justice Push: Iraq has finished questioning 5,704 suspects transferred from northeastern Syria over alleged ISIS links and will refer cases to trial courts in batches, with authorities preparing to release 457 Syrians after finding insufficient grounds. Anti-Corruption Oversight: Iraq’s Federal Integrity Commission has opened an investigation into state bank contracts, loans and advances, including special approvals, to check compliance and assign responsibility if irregularities are found. Energy Export Resilience: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered fast-track work on a $4.6B cross-country pipeline network (Basra–Haditha plus links to Turkey’s Ceyhan and Syria’s Baniyas) to expand export routes and reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Defense Deal: The US approved an $800M military helicopter sale to Iraq (Bell 412EPX and 407M) with training and support to boost air mobility, reconnaissance, medevac and border security. US-Iraq Ties: US Chargé d’Affaires Joshua Harris wrapped up his Baghdad tenure, reaffirming support for Iraq’s sovereignty and pledging stronger economic cooperation with the private sector.

Cabinet Deadlock Watch: Iraq’s PM Ali Al-Zaidi says negotiations on the remaining cabinet posts are set to wrap this week, with nominees heading to parliament next week for a confidence vote, as disputes over key ministries like Interior and Defense continue. Oil Shipping Compliance: Iraq’s SOMO denies any ties to the sanctioned tanker BINARY STAR, saying it only contracts vessels that meet compliance checks and uses monitoring when AIS data is hidden. Currency Moves: The US dollar rose against the Iraqi dinar in Baghdad and Erbil, with exchange rates reported around 1,541–1,545 dinars per dollar. Regional Energy Pressure: With Strait of Hormuz disruptions and renewed US-Iran strikes, crude prices and shipping risk remain in focus, keeping costs and planning uncertainty high for Iraq-linked trade flows.

Agriculture & Food Security: Iraq imported about 90,000 tons of potatoes worth $52.4m in 2025, highlighting a domestic production and storage gap as prices swing with regional supply from Iran, Egypt and Türkiye. Anti-Corruption: The Integrity Commission arrested four warehouse custodians in Al-Diwaniyah over alleged copper theft, as the Dawn Crackdown continues to widen across provinces. Public Finance: The cabinet will vote on Iraq’s 2027 federal budget in September, targeting a deficit capped at 3%, with electricity and development spending planned for Saladin and Al-Diwaniyah. Markets: The ISX logged over 3.12bn dinars in weekly trading and the ISX60 slipped 0.25% to 1,015. Kurdistan Trade: Baghdad and Erbil are still at odds on customs tariffs and the ASYCUDA digital customs rollout, despite an earlier agreement to split border revenues equally. Kurdistan Land Distribution: Erbil municipality begins distributing around 13,000 land plots to civil servants and pensioners, continuing a multi-wave program. Oil Exports via Syria: Iraq’s fuel oil exports through Syria rose to 21.4m barrels from March to end-August as Baghdad builds alternatives amid Hormuz disruption. Currency Watch: Parallel USD rates in Baghdad, Erbil and Basra held steady at about 154,500 IQD per $100, far above the CBI benchmark. Budget Pressure from Hormuz: A senior adviser warned Iraq won’t fund new projects or investment plans until the Hormuz crisis eases and full exports resume, citing liquidity strain.

Industrial Push: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi ordered land allocations of 250 hectares per province for industrial projects and a ban on exports of several metal raw materials, aiming to boost local manufacturing and cut import dependence. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Integrity Commission says former lawmaker Talal al-Zubaie was sentenced to seven years over illicit gains worth about 35bn dinars, with additional penalties. Central Bank Asset Freezes: The CBI ordered banks to freeze assets of senior political figures and former officials and tighten monitoring of accounts and related family holdings under “Operation Dawn.” PMF Law Drafts: Two PMF-related draft laws are nearing parliament after US objections were removed, with votes dependent on political consensus. Currency & Liquidity: Iraq is considering short-term borrowing from US banks to cover a liquidity crunch, while the dollar-to-dinar rate reportedly eased in Baghdad and Erbil. Trade Links: Turkey exported $1.113bn to Iraq in July, with Iraq among the top destinations. Kurdistan Returns: KRG begins staged registration for displaced families to return to Sinjar, starting with 410 families. Agribusiness: Duhok farmers harvested sumac from 3.5m trees, targeting Europe and the US as prices rise. Oil Route Planning: Iraq is pushing a strategic pipeline network to expand export routes and reduce reliance on the Hormuz corridor. Iran War Spillover: US strikes on Iran’s Larak Island over alleged mine threats keep Strait of Hormuz tensions front and center, with Iran warning it will not reopen without US commitments.

Kurdistan Oil Restart: Iraq’s Kurdistan Region resumed oil production after drone attacks, reaching up to 230,000 bpd across fields, with Sarsang still shut due to damage. Anti-Corruption Push: Baghdad says it recovered more than 1.359 trillion IQD in seized funds and property under “Sawlat al-Fajr,” while Kurdistan handed over dozens of corruption suspects and assets to federal authorities. Banking Reform Crossroads: Iraq’s banking sector is at a “critical crossroads,” with calls for stronger governance, anti-money laundering controls, bank restructuring, and faster depositor protections to restore public confidence. FX Reserves Watch: Iraq’s foreign currency reserves hit about $79.2bn, but officials warn liquidity could tighten if oil revenues weaken. Trade & Investment: Iraq’s Ministry of Trade met Australia’s ambassador to discuss removing barriers for Australian firms in oil, energy, and food, and boosting private-sector cooperation. Oil Logistics Shock: U.S. crude imports from Iraq reportedly fell to zero for the week, while the wider Hormuz disruption keeps pushing regional rerouting and pipeline/port alternatives. Regional Development: Al-Rutba in Anbar is pitching water, minerals, power and border logistics to attract agricultural, industrial, and transport projects as security improves.

Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi ordered the Federal Integrity Commission to activate rewards for corruption whistleblowers, tighten border-crossing monitoring, and publicly expose graft suspects, with progress reports and stronger preventive controls across high-value state contracts. Financial Oversight: The Central Bank of Iraq told banks to intensify checks on senior officials and other public figures for unexplained wealth, suspicious high-value transactions, and hidden beneficial ownership, as part of the wider Dawn crackdown. Kurdistan Aid Uncertainty: Iraq’s interior minister said no final decision has been made on reported US suspension of Peshmerga funding, amid concerns over security and reform progress. Local Development & Trade: Al-Rutba in Anbar is pitching its water, minerals, and power network to attract agriculture, industry, and logistics investment as security improves. Business & Investment: Erbil’s construction exhibition is drawing 450+ exhibitors and B2B meetings aimed at bringing new building tech and sustainable energy projects into Iraq. Regional Context: US sanctions pressure on Iran is expanding via “economic D-Day” measures targeting gold, shipping, tech and digital assets—raising risks for trade routes that matter to Iraq’s wider economy.

Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Central Bank says the Karkh Investigation Court ordered asset seizures for 12 MPs and former PM advisers, and instructed all banks to freeze their accounts as part of the “Green Dawn” anti-corruption push. Oil & Trade Infrastructure: Iraq is moving ahead with a new pipeline plan that could open export routes of up to 2.25M bpd, running from Basra through Haditha to Fishkhabur, with a link from Haditha to Baniyas on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, involving Chevron, TI Capital, and Qatar’s UCC. Currency Watch: Parallel USD exchange rates in Baghdad and Erbil edged up at the weekly opening, with Baghdad retail selling around 154,500 IQD per $100. Energy Reliability Risk: Private generator operators warn of an Iraq-wide shutdown in early September, citing fuel support gaps and high delivered fuel costs amid frequent power outages. Labor Pressure: Education contract workers protested in Baghdad demanding permanent jobs and budget funding, adding to a wider wave of employment demonstrations. Housing Crunch: Iraq’s housing shortage is blamed on corruption, hoarding, and concentrated property ownership, with officials citing millions of people chasing far fewer homes.

U.S.-Iran financial squeeze with Iraq in the crosshairs: Washington is warning that countries trading with Iran could be pushed out of the dollar-based system, and it has already sanctioned Iraqi banks tied to Tehran. The latest focus is on cutting Iran’s access to U.S. dollars via correspondent banking, including a proposed move targeting Banque Misr UAE as a “critical node” for Iranian shadow networks. Iraq housing crisis returns to the spotlight: A deadly Al-Dora clash during removals of unauthorized homes underlined Iraq’s long-running informal settlement problem, with Iraq’s housing ministry citing millions living in thousands of informal areas. CBI anti-corruption crackdown: Iraq’s Central Bank ordered precautionary asset freezes for 12 political figures tied to corruption cases. Visa shock for Iraqi finance figure: The U.S. revoked former Iraqi finance minister Taif Sami’s visa after she was reportedly placed on the FBI terror watchlist, which she denies. Regional security and disarmament pressure: Iraqi officials signaled friction over a September 30 disarmament timeline for Iran-backed militias as U.S. coalition withdrawal nears. Arab markets: Arab stock trading volume rose about 29% in July, driven largely by a surge on the Iraq Stock Exchange.

Iraq Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s National Security Service says it arrested 61 people in Al-Muthanna over a land-record forgery network tied to more than 90 forged transactions and about $1.5m in losses to public funds, with suspects including officials, lawyers, and real-estate office owners. Media Regulation: Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission is caught between telecom success and a deeper media-access crisis, with critics pointing to political interference and board paralysis undermining its independence. Sectarian Tensions: A Najaf preacher urged Iraqis to reject hate speech and back unity across sects, after renewed social-media controversy prompted complaints from the Sunni Endowment. Iran War & Oil Routes: As the Iran-US-Israel conflict hits six months, Gulf states are accelerating billions in port, pipeline, and rail investments to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, while analysts warn alternatives won’t fully replace lost capacity soon. Sanctions Pressure: Iran says the US “Operation Economic Outcast” is illegal and warns countries against implementing or recognizing effects of new sanctions targeting Iran’s trade and financial links. Iraq Trade Impact: An Iraq economic review warns disruptions to Hormuz could push Iraqi traders toward Turkey supply chains, risking weaker Gulf ties for some businesses.

Iraq–US Economic Diplomacy: US ambassador Steven Fagin is set to return to Baghdad to lead the US mission, with economic ties and investment in focus after meetings with the US Chamber of Commerce and major firms like GE Vernova, BP, and Baker Hughes. Anti-Corruption Drive: Iraq’s Integrity Commission chief Mohammad Ali Al-Lami says the campaign has “no red lines,” stressing prosecution and asset recovery across state institutions. Iraq Security & ISIS Repatriation: Iraq is pushing to speed up repatriation of foreign ISIS detainees, but several governments are delaying returns over security and legal guarantees ahead of the Sept. 30 Coalition drawdown. Iran Sanctions & Regional Trade: The US is escalating “Operation Economic Outcast,” aiming to pressure countries to cut financial dealings with Iran; the UAE’s suspension of trade is highlighted as a key test, with Iraq, Turkey, and Pakistan seen as potential pressure points. Oil & Shipping Risk: Strait of Hormuz crude flows are edging higher as Gulf producers ramp exports, even as tanker strikes and negotiations with Oman keep risk elevated. Regional Connectivity: Türkiye and Iraq are deepening partnership around trade, energy, water, and the Development Road corridor as Hormuz disruption boosts the case for overland routes.

Iraq Oil Exports: SOMO is offering Basrah crude buyers a new ship-to-ship transfer option near Oman, letting them avoid the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the Iran war began—an attempt to claw back exports after Hormuz disruptions crushed volumes and pushed steep discounts. Anti-Corruption Watch: Iraq’s National Security Service says it recovered 93 billion dinars for the state treasury in the first half of 2026, seized $14m and 12bn dinars, and arrested 40 suspects tied to the banned Baath Party, alongside major cyber operations. Fuel Demand Signal: Diesel led Iraq’s July fuel sales, with 1.528bn liters sold—highlighting continued reliance on generators and transport amid a still-tight power grid. Central Bank Currency Rumors: The CBI denied reports that it is printing redenominated banknotes with zeros removed, saying any future currency restructuring would follow official legal and technical steps. Electricity Integrity: Iraq’s Integrity Commission arrested two electricity distribution employees in Al-Muthanna over alleged financial violations. Higher-Education Compliance (Regional): The UAE issued unified rules for higher-education violations, setting standardized penalties and protections for students. Diplomacy on Hormuz: Qatar’s PM is in Tehran pushing de-escalation and urging a return of Hormuz shipping to pre-February 28 status.

Iraq’s Telecom Court Battle: Iraq’s court overturned Korek Telecom’s injunction and upheld the Communications and Media Commission’s suspension, tightening pressure on the operator after CMC shutdown steps in Baghdad. Pharma Push: Iraq’s Health Ministry is trying to bring back major drugmakers, including GSK, to widen access to medicines and boost competition, especially for cancer care and vaccines. Energy Dealmaking: Iraq and Shell discussed expanding gas production in Basra and better use of associated gas to cut flaring and secure fuel for industry and power. Basra Gas Output: The Oil Ministry said it’s prioritizing gas investment and faster associated-gas projects to raise capacity and exports. CBI Currency Rumors: Iraq’s central bank denied issuing new dinar banknotes with three zeros removed, warning the public against speculation while lawmakers debate redenomination. Oil Export Pressure: Iraq’s oil sector remains tied to Hormuz uncertainty as officials discuss tanker passage and regional energy routes. Diplomatic Staffing: The US plans a phased return of diplomats to Middle East embassies, including Iraq, signaling no immediate full-scale escalation. PMF Reform Watch: Iraq’s PM is pushing PMF restructuring aimed at professionalization, with disarmament implications for militia policy.

CBI Watch: Iraq’s Central Bank cut foreign currency sales to $5.662bn in July 2026, down 20% year-on-year, as cash sales rose but transfers to bolster banks’ foreign balances fell. Defense Financing: Iraq’s Finance Minister met South Korea’s ambassador to finalize funding mechanisms for a contracted air defense missile system, aligning treasury disbursements with delivery timelines. Airport Progress: Nasiriyah International Airport hit 68% completion, with handover targeted for early 2027 as new ground-handling equipment and China factory tests are readied. State Bank Review: Iraq is reviewing state banks over alleged public-fund misuse, liquidity issues, and reporting gaps, with possible management changes and legal steps. Sectarian Content Case: Iraq’s Sunni Endowment filed a criminal complaint over a Shiite reciter’s remarks after a resurfaced social media video, with fact-checkers saying the footage is old. Oil Trade Pressure: TotalEnergies says crude is moving “very quietly” through Hormuz at a premium while refined products lag, underscoring how war disruptions are reshaping Iraq-linked export economics. Scholarship Push: PetroChina Iraq-backed program will send 30 Iraqi students to China University of Petroleum for engineering studies. Waste-to-Resource Deal: GCCE Iraq and Germany’s Sutco signed an agreement in Baghdad for a waste management and resource recovery facility producing fertilizer and sustainable aviation fuel.

Iraq’s Oil Export Pulse: South Korea kept Iraq as its fourth-largest crude supplier in H1 2026, with shipments at 7.4% of imports, though Hormuz disruptions pushed Seoul to lean more on the Americas. CBI Currency Update: Iraq’s currency issued climbed to 111.189 trillion dinars (about $84.5B) by end-June 2026, with most cash sitting outside banks. Hormuz Pressure on Trade: Strait of Hormuz transits fell sharply to about 5 million bpd, while the IMO logged 68 incidents in the wider Gulf over the past six months, killing at least 20 seafarers or port workers. Budget for Delays: Iraq plans to set aside $15B (20 trillion dinars) in 2027 to finish stalled projects, warning deficits could widen if Hormuz curbs persist. Regional Power Talk: Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf told Iraq’s chief justice that a “new regional order” is forming as the US coalition prepares to withdraw from Iraq. Sanctions Spillover Risk: US officials say the next phase of pressure on Iran is economic, with secondary sanctions aimed at countries and firms doing business with Tehran—raising the stakes for Iraq’s financial and trade links.

Iran War’s Shipping Toll: The UN’s IMO says 68 incidents have hit the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters over six months, killing at least 20 seafarers/port workers and wounding 35, with UKMTO classifying 47 as attacks—mostly tankers. US Diplomatic Shift: The US State Department is preparing to return evacuated diplomats to Middle East embassies, including Baghdad, and scale back emergency measures as security posture reviews continue. Sanctions Push on Iran: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled “Operation Economic Outcast,” widening secondary sanctions tied to shipping, gold, aviation, tech and digital assets, and warning partners—including Iraq—could face penalties. Kurdistan Oil Update: Gulf Keystone says Shaikan output has restarted and is nearing 40,000 bpd, extending interim export agreements through Jan. 2027 and declaring a $10m interim dividend. Iraq Energy Ambition: Separate coverage highlights Iraq’s push to raise oil output toward 8–10m bpd within six years, with OPEC quota talks in focus.

US-Iran Economic Pressure: The US launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” expanding secondary sanctions meant to “sever every economic lifeline” to Iran, targeting sectors like digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, plus about 60 individuals, firms and vessels tied to Iran’s oil revenue, weapons procurement and cyber activity—while warning countries and companies that keep dealing with Tehran could face dollar-system penalties. Oil Market Watch: Oil prices slid after the announcement, with Brent down about $2.2 and WTI down about $2.1 as traders took profits and questioned how hard Washington will enforce the new secondary sanctions. Iraq Oil Sector Tension: Iraq’s North Gas pushed back on planned oil-sector reforms, saying operational needs, workers’ rights and maintenance funding must be protected during a time-limited trial—after protests erupted over new crude pricing rules that could cut refinery revenues by 30%. Hormuz Costs & Route Shifts: TotalEnergies’ CEO said shipping a supertanker through the Strait of Hormuz now costs about $20 million, and the firm is backing pipeline projects to bypass the chokepoint, including an Iraq-to-Syria route. Security & Finance in Iraq: Iraq’s Federal Intelligence and Investigations Agency said it dismantled a fraud network selling dollars via social media and stealing via digital wallets, while also shutting down related platforms. Regional Update: The US removed Syria from its state sponsor of terrorism list, a move Syria says will help reopen the door to investment and reconstruction.