AGP Executive Report

Oil Exports: Iraq’s Ministry of Oil says August crude exports hit about 70 million barrels, bringing preliminary revenues near $4.5 billion, with average daily exports topping 2 million barrels after earlier shipping bottlenecks eased. Fuel Shortage & Policy Response: Iraq’s Oil Ministry pushed back on rumors blaming refining and distribution, saying station overcrowding stems from a production-consumption gap and delayed tanker arrivals; it plans to use more tankers to boost daily supply and urges citizens to avoid hoarding. Green Taxi Plan: Baghdad is moving ahead with a “Green Taxi” project to introduce electric taxis and charging facilities, with feasibility work underway and officials considering contracts to import vehicles via a government-backed arrangement, timed amid gasoline shortages. Anti-Graft & Land Enforcement: Iraqi security forces arrested a man in Baghdad’s Al-Zafaraniya accused of illegally selling and subdividing state agricultural land, seizing weapons and forged stamps as authorities step up action against encroachment. Human Trafficking Crackdown: Iraq’s National Intelligence Service says it arrested a 10-member network in Baghdad accused of luring foreigners with job promises, then holding them captive, torturing them, and demanding ransoms. Business/Finance Watch: Iraq’s currency and banking headlines this week also included reports of small banknote shortages disrupting Kirkuk markets and broader concerns about liquidity and oversight in the power sector.

Iraq Oil & Trade: Iraq’s oil exports jumped 73% in August as Hormuz flows eased, with PetroChina and Reliance lifting volumes and helping support regional fuel supply. Public Finance & Corruption: An Iraqi MP says Oil Ministry oversight failed in graft cases tied to Deputy Oil Minister for Refining Adnan Al-Jumaili and detained Oil Products Distribution chief Hussein Talib, while recovered assets may ease but won’t solve Iraq’s liquidity stress. Transport & Daily Life: Baghdad faces a major school-year crunch: about 3 million cars in the capital versus only ~1,000 state buses, with a driver shortage pushing the government to transfer staff from the Electricity Ministry to keep services running. Regional Business Disruption: Flight delays and cancellations across the UAE and Dubai-linked routes continue as US-Iran escalation disrupts air travel and raises security pressure for carriers and passengers. Energy Prices: Oil prices rose for the week on renewed US-Iran tensions, with diesel hitting record highs—raising costs that ripple into inflation and borrowing pressures. Corporate Moves: DNO withdrew its takeover bid for Genel Energy after Genel refused to engage, sending Genel shares down sharply.

Iraq Economy & Security: A key Iraqi lawmaker warned that missing the Sept. 30 weapons-control deadline could trigger tougher international pressure and even an “economic shutdown” if oil exports are disrupted or Iraq is isolated from the global financial system, noting oil is about 79% of federal revenue and SWIFT access is vital. Oil & Markets: Oil prices stayed mixed as investors weighed renewed US-Iran strikes and Israeli threats against signs Russia is open to talks, with the Strait of Hormuz risk still driving supply concerns. Iraq Energy Projects: Iraq is preparing studies for a 2 mln bpd Basra–Haditha pipeline network to Syria (Baniyas/Fishkhabour) to cut reliance on Hormuz routes, while Midland Oil seeks US partnerships to develop gas fields in Diyala and Anbar. Food & Agriculture: Nineveh expanded seed cleaning and treatment lines with World Bank support, lifting capacity to 30 tons per hour, as Iraq pushes food security. Housing Push: Baghdad ordered provinces to plan new modern cities (10,000–15,000 dunams each) to tackle a housing gap estimated at 2.5–3 mln units. Anti-ISIS Justice: Iraq’s judiciary said it finished interrogations of 5,704 ISIS detainees for trial.

Rail & Trade: The Basra–Shalamcheh rail link is reported at about 70% completion, with demining finished on 16 km on the Iranian side and work pushing toward completion; the project also ties into plans for a free-trade zone and an industrial center at Shalamcheh to boost cross-border activity between Basra and Iran’s Khuzestan. Oil Markets & FX: Iraq’s dollar trading in Baghdad and Erbil stayed mixed around 154,500 dinars per $100, while regional US-Iran tensions kept crude prices elevated, with Hormuz disruption fears continuing to ripple through energy costs. Protests & Jobs: Job demands intensified in Basra and Al-Anbar as science and engineering graduates staged sit-ins outside major oil and education sites, reporting detentions and assaults during dispersals. Governance & Banking: The Central Bank placed Al-Taif Islamic Bank under guardianship, while Iraq’s anti-corruption push continued with arrests and asset freezes tied to officials and MPs. Regional Security Fallout: Iran claimed missile/drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and the UAE, and Iraq’s Kurdistan region was also mentioned among targets, underscoring how the wider conflict is feeding into Iraq’s security and economic uncertainty.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded the heaviest blows in weeks, with Washington striking Iranian targets after Tehran’s attacks on shipping and US forces, and Iran retaliating with missile/drone strikes on US bases across the region including Iraq’s Kurdistan. Hormuz Oil Shock: The Strait of Hormuz fight is again disrupting tanker traffic and pushing oil higher, while the US also unveiled a “tanker-for-tanker” approach targeting Iranian tankers. Iraq Exports Up: Despite the wider crisis, Iraq’s oil exports jumped about 73% in August to roughly 2.34m bpd as buyers returned via discounts and alternative shipping/ship-to-ship transfers. Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Interior Ministry dismissed 38 officers and 180 personnel over graft during the first 100 days of the Dawn crackdown, with thousands more disciplined for abandoning posts. US-Iraq Diplomacy: Steven Fagin is set to return as US Chargé d’Affaires in Baghdad, as Washington’s posture toward Iraq and regional security remains in flux.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded retaliatory strikes again after a monthlong lull, with Iran firing at US bases across Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq’s Kurdistan region following US attacks that Tehran says hit a wedding party in southern Iran; the renewed fighting is already pushing oil prices higher and rattling markets. Iraq Security & Corruption: Iraq’s National Security Service arrested a Najaf suspect over counterfeit currency and links to regional criminal networks, seizing $100,000 plus Iraqi dinars, documents and bank cards; separately, Rafidain Bank former managers were reportedly detained in a corruption probe. Trade & Connectivity: Iraq and Türkiye moved to implement a new Fishkhabur–Ovakoy road-and-rail border crossing tied into Iraq’s Development Road corridor to boost cross-border freight and transit. Business & Investment Oversight: Iraq’s Integrity Commission and the National Investment Commission agreed to coordinate more closely to protect investors from bribery and regulatory extortion and speed project clearances. Energy & Industry: The Iraqi Drilling Company completed a 4,152m horizontal well in East Baghdad, while Iraq’s PM reiterated plans to raise oil output toward 10 million bpd by 2030. Diplomacy: Steven Fagin returned to Baghdad as chargé d’affaires, replacing Joshua Harris, as Washington signals continued support for Iraq’s sovereignty and economic ties.

Food Security & Regulation: Iraq’s Cabinet banned agricultural imports until the end of the domestic production season and approved a draft law to create a Food and Drug Authority, aiming to tighten food safety and boost local supply. Household Cost Pressure: Living costs are squeezing Iraqi families as salaries get eaten by rent, utilities, food, transport and private generators, while the minimum wage remains far below rising essentials. Energy & Jobs: Energy-sector workers and private generator owners protested across Basra, Anbar and Kirkuk over higher electricity tariffs and crude pricing, demanding fair rates and permanent jobs in the 2027 budget. Oil Output Plan: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi pushed for raising Iraq’s oil output to 10 million bpd by 2030, including more Kurdistan field production, expanded exploration and full recovery of associated gas. Corruption Crackdown: The Integrity Commission caught an Education Ministry employee taking a bribe and referred the case to court. Trade & Currency Signals: Japan’s exports to Iraq plunged in Q2 2026, while the US dollar held steady in Baghdad but ticked up slightly in Erbil. Workforce Development: In Erbil, the Rwanga Foundation and Italy’s ICU completed a 45-day vocational training program, placing 40 graduates into direct employment.

Iraq’s Anti-ISIS Justice Push: Iraq has finished questioning 5,704 suspects transferred from northeastern Syria over alleged ISIS links and will refer cases to trial courts in batches, with authorities preparing to release 457 Syrians after finding insufficient grounds. Anti-Corruption Oversight: Iraq’s Federal Integrity Commission has opened an investigation into state bank contracts, loans and advances, including special approvals, to check compliance and assign responsibility if irregularities are found. Energy Export Resilience: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered fast-track work on a $4.6B cross-country pipeline network (Basra–Haditha plus links to Turkey’s Ceyhan and Syria’s Baniyas) to expand export routes and reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Defense Deal: The US approved an $800M military helicopter sale to Iraq (Bell 412EPX and 407M) with training and support to boost air mobility, reconnaissance, medevac and border security. US-Iraq Ties: US Chargé d’Affaires Joshua Harris wrapped up his Baghdad tenure, reaffirming support for Iraq’s sovereignty and pledging stronger economic cooperation with the private sector.

Cabinet Deadlock Watch: Iraq’s PM Ali Al-Zaidi says negotiations on the remaining cabinet posts are set to wrap this week, with nominees heading to parliament next week for a confidence vote, as disputes over key ministries like Interior and Defense continue. Oil Shipping Compliance: Iraq’s SOMO denies any ties to the sanctioned tanker BINARY STAR, saying it only contracts vessels that meet compliance checks and uses monitoring when AIS data is hidden. Currency Moves: The US dollar rose against the Iraqi dinar in Baghdad and Erbil, with exchange rates reported around 1,541–1,545 dinars per dollar. Regional Energy Pressure: With Strait of Hormuz disruptions and renewed US-Iran strikes, crude prices and shipping risk remain in focus, keeping costs and planning uncertainty high for Iraq-linked trade flows.

Agriculture & Food Security: Iraq imported about 90,000 tons of potatoes worth $52.4m in 2025, highlighting a domestic production and storage gap as prices swing with regional supply from Iran, Egypt and Türkiye. Anti-Corruption: The Integrity Commission arrested four warehouse custodians in Al-Diwaniyah over alleged copper theft, as the Dawn Crackdown continues to widen across provinces. Public Finance: The cabinet will vote on Iraq’s 2027 federal budget in September, targeting a deficit capped at 3%, with electricity and development spending planned for Saladin and Al-Diwaniyah. Markets: The ISX logged over 3.12bn dinars in weekly trading and the ISX60 slipped 0.25% to 1,015. Kurdistan Trade: Baghdad and Erbil are still at odds on customs tariffs and the ASYCUDA digital customs rollout, despite an earlier agreement to split border revenues equally. Kurdistan Land Distribution: Erbil municipality begins distributing around 13,000 land plots to civil servants and pensioners, continuing a multi-wave program. Oil Exports via Syria: Iraq’s fuel oil exports through Syria rose to 21.4m barrels from March to end-August as Baghdad builds alternatives amid Hormuz disruption. Currency Watch: Parallel USD rates in Baghdad, Erbil and Basra held steady at about 154,500 IQD per $100, far above the CBI benchmark. Budget Pressure from Hormuz: A senior adviser warned Iraq won’t fund new projects or investment plans until the Hormuz crisis eases and full exports resume, citing liquidity strain.

Industrial Push: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi ordered land allocations of 250 hectares per province for industrial projects and a ban on exports of several metal raw materials, aiming to boost local manufacturing and cut import dependence. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Integrity Commission says former lawmaker Talal al-Zubaie was sentenced to seven years over illicit gains worth about 35bn dinars, with additional penalties. Central Bank Asset Freezes: The CBI ordered banks to freeze assets of senior political figures and former officials and tighten monitoring of accounts and related family holdings under “Operation Dawn.” PMF Law Drafts: Two PMF-related draft laws are nearing parliament after US objections were removed, with votes dependent on political consensus. Currency & Liquidity: Iraq is considering short-term borrowing from US banks to cover a liquidity crunch, while the dollar-to-dinar rate reportedly eased in Baghdad and Erbil. Trade Links: Turkey exported $1.113bn to Iraq in July, with Iraq among the top destinations. Kurdistan Returns: KRG begins staged registration for displaced families to return to Sinjar, starting with 410 families. Agribusiness: Duhok farmers harvested sumac from 3.5m trees, targeting Europe and the US as prices rise. Oil Route Planning: Iraq is pushing a strategic pipeline network to expand export routes and reduce reliance on the Hormuz corridor. Iran War Spillover: US strikes on Iran’s Larak Island over alleged mine threats keep Strait of Hormuz tensions front and center, with Iran warning it will not reopen without US commitments.

Kurdistan Oil Restart: Iraq’s Kurdistan Region resumed oil production after drone attacks, reaching up to 230,000 bpd across fields, with Sarsang still shut due to damage. Anti-Corruption Push: Baghdad says it recovered more than 1.359 trillion IQD in seized funds and property under “Sawlat al-Fajr,” while Kurdistan handed over dozens of corruption suspects and assets to federal authorities. Banking Reform Crossroads: Iraq’s banking sector is at a “critical crossroads,” with calls for stronger governance, anti-money laundering controls, bank restructuring, and faster depositor protections to restore public confidence. FX Reserves Watch: Iraq’s foreign currency reserves hit about $79.2bn, but officials warn liquidity could tighten if oil revenues weaken. Trade & Investment: Iraq’s Ministry of Trade met Australia’s ambassador to discuss removing barriers for Australian firms in oil, energy, and food, and boosting private-sector cooperation. Oil Logistics Shock: U.S. crude imports from Iraq reportedly fell to zero for the week, while the wider Hormuz disruption keeps pushing regional rerouting and pipeline/port alternatives. Regional Development: Al-Rutba in Anbar is pitching water, minerals, power and border logistics to attract agricultural, industrial, and transport projects as security improves.

Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi ordered the Federal Integrity Commission to activate rewards for corruption whistleblowers, tighten border-crossing monitoring, and publicly expose graft suspects, with progress reports and stronger preventive controls across high-value state contracts. Financial Oversight: The Central Bank of Iraq told banks to intensify checks on senior officials and other public figures for unexplained wealth, suspicious high-value transactions, and hidden beneficial ownership, as part of the wider Dawn crackdown. Kurdistan Aid Uncertainty: Iraq’s interior minister said no final decision has been made on reported US suspension of Peshmerga funding, amid concerns over security and reform progress. Local Development & Trade: Al-Rutba in Anbar is pitching its water, minerals, and power network to attract agriculture, industry, and logistics investment as security improves. Business & Investment: Erbil’s construction exhibition is drawing 450+ exhibitors and B2B meetings aimed at bringing new building tech and sustainable energy projects into Iraq. Regional Context: US sanctions pressure on Iran is expanding via “economic D-Day” measures targeting gold, shipping, tech and digital assets—raising risks for trade routes that matter to Iraq’s wider economy.

Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Central Bank says the Karkh Investigation Court ordered asset seizures for 12 MPs and former PM advisers, and instructed all banks to freeze their accounts as part of the “Green Dawn” anti-corruption push. Oil & Trade Infrastructure: Iraq is moving ahead with a new pipeline plan that could open export routes of up to 2.25M bpd, running from Basra through Haditha to Fishkhabur, with a link from Haditha to Baniyas on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, involving Chevron, TI Capital, and Qatar’s UCC. Currency Watch: Parallel USD exchange rates in Baghdad and Erbil edged up at the weekly opening, with Baghdad retail selling around 154,500 IQD per $100. Energy Reliability Risk: Private generator operators warn of an Iraq-wide shutdown in early September, citing fuel support gaps and high delivered fuel costs amid frequent power outages. Labor Pressure: Education contract workers protested in Baghdad demanding permanent jobs and budget funding, adding to a wider wave of employment demonstrations. Housing Crunch: Iraq’s housing shortage is blamed on corruption, hoarding, and concentrated property ownership, with officials citing millions of people chasing far fewer homes.

U.S.-Iran financial squeeze with Iraq in the crosshairs: Washington is warning that countries trading with Iran could be pushed out of the dollar-based system, and it has already sanctioned Iraqi banks tied to Tehran. The latest focus is on cutting Iran’s access to U.S. dollars via correspondent banking, including a proposed move targeting Banque Misr UAE as a “critical node” for Iranian shadow networks. Iraq housing crisis returns to the spotlight: A deadly Al-Dora clash during removals of unauthorized homes underlined Iraq’s long-running informal settlement problem, with Iraq’s housing ministry citing millions living in thousands of informal areas. CBI anti-corruption crackdown: Iraq’s Central Bank ordered precautionary asset freezes for 12 political figures tied to corruption cases. Visa shock for Iraqi finance figure: The U.S. revoked former Iraqi finance minister Taif Sami’s visa after she was reportedly placed on the FBI terror watchlist, which she denies. Regional security and disarmament pressure: Iraqi officials signaled friction over a September 30 disarmament timeline for Iran-backed militias as U.S. coalition withdrawal nears. Arab markets: Arab stock trading volume rose about 29% in July, driven largely by a surge on the Iraq Stock Exchange.

Iraq Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s National Security Service says it arrested 61 people in Al-Muthanna over a land-record forgery network tied to more than 90 forged transactions and about $1.5m in losses to public funds, with suspects including officials, lawyers, and real-estate office owners. Media Regulation: Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission is caught between telecom success and a deeper media-access crisis, with critics pointing to political interference and board paralysis undermining its independence. Sectarian Tensions: A Najaf preacher urged Iraqis to reject hate speech and back unity across sects, after renewed social-media controversy prompted complaints from the Sunni Endowment. Iran War & Oil Routes: As the Iran-US-Israel conflict hits six months, Gulf states are accelerating billions in port, pipeline, and rail investments to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, while analysts warn alternatives won’t fully replace lost capacity soon. Sanctions Pressure: Iran says the US “Operation Economic Outcast” is illegal and warns countries against implementing or recognizing effects of new sanctions targeting Iran’s trade and financial links. Iraq Trade Impact: An Iraq economic review warns disruptions to Hormuz could push Iraqi traders toward Turkey supply chains, risking weaker Gulf ties for some businesses.