AGP Executive Report

Currency Shock: Iraq reset the official dollar rate on Oct. 7, from 1,320 to as much as 1,520 dinars—nearly a 15% devaluation. The parallel-market rate climbed above 1,700. The move brings in more dinars for each oil dollar but makes imports costlier and cuts household purchasing power; the Finance Ministry also ended advance customs-fee collection. Digital Infrastructure: Ooredoo’s OFN and Iraqi provider iQ Networks agreed to build a fibre transit link across Iraq, extending a planned subsea and land corridor from Asia and the Gulf toward Türkiye and Europe. Trade and Investment: Qatar and Iraqi chambers agreed to establish a joint business council and reviewed about 60 Development Road investment opportunities valued at $250 billion. Public Finances: Iraq’s draft 2027 budget assumes oil at $58 a barrel, plans 217 trillion dinars in spending and forecasts a deficit exceeding 40 trillion. Baghdad also launched a $2.7 billion stimulus package and is seeking more oil tankers and alternative export routes as Hormuz disruptions threaten revenue.

Iraq’s Trade & Transport: Iraq logged 1,120 cross-border TIR freight trips in September, routing cargo via Ibrahim al-Khalil into Iraq and out through Safwan and Trebil, underscoring its role as a commercial corridor. UN Development Push: Baghdad and the UN formally launched the Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework 2025-2029, aligning UN programs with Iraq’s Vision 2030 and national development plans across jobs, governance, and climate resilience. Tech & Data Infrastructure: Iraq signed an MoU with Huawei to set up data centres and build international partnerships, announced during ITEX5-2026. Shipping Revival: Iraq’s national carrier Iraqi Line will resume Gulf shipping after a 50+ year gap, with the first voyage from Jebel Ali to Umm Qasr on Oct. 15. Energy & Budget Pressure: Iraq’s draft 2027 budget targets spending of 217T IQD (about $166bn) on an assumed $58 oil price, with a deficit around 40T IQD, as Hormuz disruptions push Iraq to seek alternative export routes. Regional Business Linkages: Reuters reports Chinese independent refiners are buying more Iraqi crude as Iranian supplies to China fall, with Basrah grades in demand.

Strait of Hormuz Energy Watch: Gulf oil flows (excluding Iran) rebounded to about 81% of pre-war levels in September, with Saudi exports helping recovery, even as tanker attacks keep raising freight, insurance, and security costs. Iraq Currency & Liquidity: The US dollar held above 160,000 IQD on Iraq’s parallel markets, around 20%+ over the official rate, as demand and speculation persist despite fresh cash shipments. Iraq EV Push: Iraq’s “Green Taxi” plan targets one million electric vehicles, relying on a public-private partnership model with banks, investors, and charging infrastructure. Kurdistan Budget Talks: A KRG delegation is heading to Baghdad to negotiate the 2027 budget, with Erbil pushing for 14.14% versus the draft’s 12.67% share. Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s Integrity Commission arrested the head of the Saladin Investment Commission over alleged corruption. Tourism Milestone: Iraq reported about 10 million international tourists in 2025, citing improved entry systems across major airports and border points. Regional Macro Hit: The World Bank cut its 2026 Middle East growth outlook, forecasting a 2.1% contraction tied to the Iran war and disrupted energy flows. Turkey-Iraq Energy Corridor: Turkey plans to expand Iraq’s Development Road into a multi-fuel energy corridor worth up to $80bn annually.

Iraq Economic Push: Iraq announced a $2.7bn (about IQD 3.5tn) stimulus package covering housing finance, industrial lending, contractor payments, agricultural dues and an expanded Generations Fund, with PM Ali al-Zaidi calling for fast implementation. Digital Tax Reform: The Finance Ministry launched Iraq’s first electronic tax assessment system for large taxpayers, enabling remote filing and payments plus electronic document archiving to improve efficiency and protect revenues. Oil Shipping Strategy: Iraq’s state Oil Tankers Company says it is moving crude beyond the Strait of Hormuz using company-owned VLCCs, aiming to shift from Basrah delivery to direct transport for better pricing. Regional Trade Moves: Iraq met EU officials on WTO accession and trade expansion, while Iraq also worked to complete legal registration for Germany’s trade office in Baghdad. Kurdistan Business Links: A Russian business mission signed its first commercial deals in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, spanning food, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods, with plans to reduce intermediaries. Investor Relations Spotlight: Zain Group earned the 2026 MEIRA Gold Standard Certification for investor relations excellence across its listed operations including Iraq.

Iraq–Iran Air Links: Iraq’s transport ministry says Iraqi Airways will resume direct flights to Iran from Thursday, with daily routes from Najaf to Mashhad, Tehran and Isfahan after a US sanctions exemption/waiver; Iraq also previously allowed Iranian airlines (excluding Mahan Air) up to 40 daily flights to Najaf, and flights resumed Sunday. Security & State Control: With the US military mission ending, Baghdad is pushing to bring paramilitary groups under state control, setting a phased plan and a 30 June 2027 deadline, starting with a 90-day halt on military activity beginning 30 September. Oil, Shipping & FX Pressure: Middle East crude exports (excluding Iran) are reported back near pre-war levels in September, but with more cargoes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via Saudi/UAE pipelines and Red Sea routes; at home, the US dollar reportedly surged past 160,000 IQD in Baghdad and Erbil parallel markets, widening volatility. Energy Infrastructure Deals: Türkiye says Iraq’s Development Road could become an $80B-a-year energy corridor, potentially moving up to 2.5 million bpd, after talks with Iraq’s oil minister in Ankara. Public Opinion: A 100-day survey on Ali al-Zaidi’s government finds high early satisfaction, but persistent worries over corruption and unemployment.

OPEC+ Oil Policy: OPEC+ agreed to keep November output targets unchanged for a second straight month, citing elevated crude prices tied to the Iran conflict and ongoing risks to supply routes; the group will reconvene Nov. 1 as traders watch for any Strait of Hormuz disruption. Iraq Oil Logistics: Iraq’s state tanker operator shipped about 2 million barrels of crude beyond the Strait of Hormuz on a VLCC for the first time in decades, aiming for better pricing and pushing talks to buy specialized tankers to expand export capacity. Regional Energy Routes: Türkiye and Iraq plan to activate joint energy working groups, including extending the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to Basra and boosting capacity to reduce reliance on Hormuz. Sanctions & Air Travel: The US granted Iraq an exemption allowing Iranian airlines (excluding Mahan Air) to resume up to 40 daily flights to Najaf, easing travel for pilgrims and patients; Iraq also reported a slight rise in the dollar exchange rate against the dinar. Domestic Economy Support: PM Al-Zaidi ordered at least $2.67B in economic measures (3.5T dinars), including central bank-linked funding for housing/real estate, liquidity for banks to finance industry, and payments to contractors and farmers. Business & Services: Lafarge Iraq named a new CEO; Ishtar resumed broadcasting Iraq Stars League matches after settling debts; and Baghdad faces a severe school shortage with many prefabricated classrooms and possible relocations. Security & Sovereignty: Iraq says F-16 maintenance is fully handled by Iraqi engineers and technicians since 2025, while the US withdrawal reshapes the security and sovereignty debate.

OPEC+ Policy: OPEC said OPEC+ will keep oil output unchanged for a second straight month in November after a virtual review of market conditions, with the group set to meet again on Nov. 1. Iraq Oil Exports: Iraq’s state Oil Tankers Company shipped 2 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz on a VLCC for the first time in decades, shifting some exports away from the Basra delivery model to improve pricing and reduce Hormuz transit risk. Oil Revenue Snapshot: Iraq’s Ministry of Finance reported total revenues of about $30bn in seven months to end-July 2026, with oil making up roughly 78% of state resources, alongside a large budget deficit. Shipping Strategy & Fleet Plans: Iraq is also studying ways to raise oil export capacity, including talks to buy specialized tankers to support exports and cut reliance on chartering. Air Connectivity for Pilgrims: Najaf airport is restarting Iran flights after a US sanctions waiver, with up to 40 daily flights planned (excluding Mahan Air), as Iraq seeks to protect religious travel and related economic activity. UN Development Framework: Iraq formally launched its 2025–2029 cooperation framework with the UN, targeting education, healthcare, jobs, climate action, and governance improvements. Kurdistan Budget Talks: KRG delegations are in Baghdad to press on the 2027 federal budget and September salary lists, including disputes over the Region’s population share. Real Estate Bank Dispute: Iraq’s Real Estate Bank challenged claims tied to the Zayouna Gate project, saying the land remains sovereign property and that the permit scope does not allow the promoted residential conversion.

Iraq Sovereignty Push: Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi marked Iraq’s National Day saying the end of the Global Coalition’s mission restored full sovereignty, with Baghdad controlling decisions, territory, airspace, and weapons under the commander-in-chief, while also pointing to plans to diversify growth, back the private sector, and move toward performance-based budgeting. Cabinet & Security Deadlines: Political parties were told to submit candidates for the remaining nine ministries ahead of a cabinet vote, as Baghdad presses a phased weapons-control plan running into 2027 after factions resisted disarmament timelines. Iran-Iraq Flight Deal: Iraq secured a US sanctions waiver to let Iranian airlines (excluding Mahan Air) operate up to 40 flights daily to and from Najaf, restarting travel for religious, medical, tourism and education purposes. Oil & Trade Talks: Iraq and Türkiye advanced a draft Ceyhan oil export agreement, aiming to expand export capacity and Turkish participation, with joint technical committees formed. Regional Security Funding: The US and Italy co-chaired a coalition meeting in Rome pledging over $75m to counter ISIS/Daesh in Iraq and Syria, citing progress after Operation Inherent Resolve’s Iraq mandate ended. Crude Through Hormuz: Iraq’s Oil Tankers Company transported two million barrels of Iraqi crude through the Strait of Hormuz, its first VLCC operation in decades. Business Cross-Border Signals: Jordan reported exports to Iraq up 20.4% in the first seven months of 2026, while imports from Iraq fell sharply, widening the trade surplus.

Najaf Flight Waiver: Iraq secured a US sanctions exemption allowing Iranian airlines (excluding Mahan Air) to operate up to 40 daily flights to and from Najaf International Airport, with Iraqi officials citing humanitarian, medical, tourism and education needs. Anti-Corruption Courts: Iraq’s “Dawn Crackdown” is shifting from mass arrests to court rulings, illicit-enrichment cases and asset recovery as investigations deepen into state institutions. Tech & Data Centers: Iraq’s Ministry of Communications signed an MoU with Huawei to build enterprise data centers nationwide, aiming to expand sovereign cloud hosting and digital services. AI Startups at ITEX: Iraqi AI and tech firms showcased solutions including media verification and anti-deepfake tools, seeking partnerships with government and enterprises. Iraq-Iran Air Access Push: A senior Shia cleric urged opening all Iraqi airports to Iranian flights, arguing the Najaf waiver should extend beyond one route. Regional Trade Signals: Jordan reported exports to Iraq up about 20% year-on-year in 2026’s first seven months, with Iraq remaining a top destination. Middle East Security: The US announced a major Middle East troop and carrier buildup as talks with Iran stall and regional tensions, including Yemen, keep rising. Transport Profit Boost: Egypt, Jordan and Iraq praised Arab Bridge Maritime’s record $40M profit through Sept. 30, supported by fleet expansion and new routes.

Kurdistan Business & Investment: Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani is set to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, with the agenda including ways to calm regional tensions and discuss Iraq’s economic outlook. Iraq–Iran Aviation & Sanctions: Iran urged Iraq to restore normal air travel and lift flight restrictions, calling US curbs “economic terrorism,” while Tehran’s main airport saw international flights drop 42% after US sanctions on Iranian airlines; Iraq’s Transport Ministry says US authorization allows Najaf–Iran flights to resume in October. Legal & Corporate Risk: A US judge ruled that helping a terrorist sponsor evade sanctions can create company liability, as MTN faces US Anti-terrorism Act claims tied to alleged support for attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan (2011–2019), moving the case into discovery. Local Economy & Consumer Tech: Zain Iraq launched iPhone 18 Pro sales as an authorized Apple distributor, signaling deeper regulated access to global tech brands. Agribusiness Innovation: Young entrepreneurs in Kurdistan launched the region’s first vermicompost plant to revive saline, degraded soils and create jobs through worm-based bio-fertilizer. Regional Safety & Industry: Nine people were detained in Turkey over a mine collapse that killed five workers, underscoring ongoing risks in extractive industries. Energy Markets: OPEC+ is reportedly leaning toward holding November oil output steady, with an OPEC+ capacity review delayed to mid-November after war-related disruptions.

Iraq Sovereignty & Weapons Control: Kurdistan President Nechirvan Barzani said war-and-peace decisions must stay with Iraq’s constitutional state authorities as the US-led coalition ends its mission, while Baghdad pushes to bring all weapons under state control and set a disarmament timeline. Militia Disarmament Timeline: Two Iran-backed Iraqi militias confirmed they will stick to PM Ali al-Zaidi’s plan to disarm non-state armed groups by June 30, 2027, even as other groups signal resistance. Dollar Cash Flows: Iraq received a fresh shipment of US dollars from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York under new bilateral understandings, aimed at meeting legitimate cash needs after earlier US physical-supply pauses. Oil & Trade Pressure: Analysts say Hormuz crude flows are rebounding toward prewar levels, but refined product supply remains constrained—keeping regional shipping and energy costs a live business risk for Iraq. Investment & Construction: ORA Iraq signed a contract with CRC Dorra to start the first phase of Madinat Al Ward in Baghdad, a $10bn, multi-year integrated city project. UN Housing in Sinjar: UNOPS awarded a $531,610 contract to rehabilitate 42 housing units in Sinjar District, supporting post-conflict recovery. Regional Security Spillover: US forces are sending additional naval assets to the Middle East as tanker incidents and renewed Iran-related tensions keep markets jumpy.

Iraq Sovereignty Push: Iraq marked “Sovereignty Days” after the full withdrawal of the US-led coalition, but lawmakers warn real sovereignty hinges on bringing all arms under state control, with a phased plan targeting a June 2027 weapons handover and ongoing political bargaining with armed factions. Banking Access: Al-Taif Islamic Bank depositors can resume partial withdrawals next week under a percentage-based payout system after the central bank placed the lender under guardianship for 18 months. Currency Watch: The Iraqi dinar’s parallel-market rates eased slightly in Baghdad, Erbil, and Basra, with the dollar dipping to around 157,500 IQD per $100 as traders anticipate renewed official cash shipments. Kurdistan Power Supply: Kurdistan’s electricity ministry says maintenance at the Khor Mor gas field will cut power supply hours from Oct. 2 to Nov. 2, with Dana Gas starting the work. Construction Deal: ORA Iraq signed a contract with CRC Dorra for Phase One of Madinat Al Ward, signaling continued investment in Iraq’s urban development pipeline. Oil & Trade Context: Oil prices held steady as Gulf exports recovered and US-Iran diplomacy remained in focus, keeping regional shipping and energy costs central to Iraq’s business outlook.

US-Iraq Withdrawal: The Pentagon says the US-led coalition mission in Iraq has formally ended, with the last troops leaving after 23 years; Washington says it will continue targeted training and intelligence support while Baghdad takes full responsibility for security decisions. Iraq Sovereignty & Security: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi says military decision-making is now “entirely national,” as fears grow that pro-Iran factions and ISIS remnants could exploit the vacuum. Shia Cleric Calls for Compensation: Muqtada al-Sadr urged Iraqis to file legal complaints and demanded the US compensate Iraq for damages from the occupation. US-Iran Tensions & Hormuz: Trump claimed Iran is “virtually destroyed” and said the US has near-total control of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran says it received a US response to its proposal to reopen the strait and ease the blockade. Oil & Shipping Risk: Reports say three vessels were struck near Hormuz, while oil flows and traffic appear to be rising despite the attacks. Business Angle—Air Connectivity: Iraq’s national carrier Iraqi Airways is preparing to resume limited Iran flights after US waivers, a move tied to broader sanctions pressure and regional trade routes.

US-Iraq Exit: The U.S.-led coalition formally ended its Iraq mission as troops completed withdrawal, with Baghdad declaring “Sovereignty Days” from Sept. 30 to Oct. 3; the Pentagon said Operation Inherent Resolve is over, shifting security toward Iraqi-led control. Kurdistan Security: Erbil’s leaders praised coordination with Baghdad but warned of an air-defense gap as coalition forces leave; drones struck Azadi Camp in Koya days before the pullout, underscoring the risk. Armed Factions vs State Control: Some Iraqi groups hailed the exit while others rejected any weapons handover and threatened action, pushing for modern air defenses and state control over oil revenues. Oil & Trade Signals: SOMO offered deeper October discounts on Basrah crude (up to $34.50 for Basrah Medium and $37 for Basrah Heavy), while Gulf markets fell on renewed Middle East uncertainty. Iraq-Turkiye Commerce: Iraq ranked as Turkiye’s fourth-largest export destination in August, buying $1.079bn. Payments & Industry: Iraq’s push for infrastructure and investment continues, including plans around data centers and new logistics deals, as regional geopolitics reshape business planning.

US-Iraq Sovereignty Shift: The last US-led coalition forces are set to leave Iraq by Sept. 30, a move Baghdad frames as sovereignty while analysts warn it could weaken the state’s leverage over Iran-backed armed groups. Arms Under State Control: Four Iraqi factions say they’ll place weapons under state authority only if conditions are met, including withdrawal of foreign forces and removal of armed groups and the PKK. Iraqi Airways Iran Route Reopens: Iraq’s Transport Ministry says Iraqi Airways will resume flights to Iran in October, limited to Najaf International Airport, after a US sanctions waiver; OFAC authorization restricts passengers to Iranian pilgrims and bars sensitive cargo and Iran-linked groups. Sanctions Pressure Continues: The US Treasury sanctioned 10 individuals/entities over alleged support for Iran’s Defense Ministry procurement, while Iraq seeks broader aviation exemptions. Oil Exports Bounce Back: Analysts say Iraq’s oil exports have recovered to about 70% of pre-war levels as transfers via Hormuz and Iran resume. Power & Industry: Iraq’s electricity minister met Poland’s ambassador to discuss power-station rehabilitation and new partnerships; Iraq also plans to regulate foreign labor more tightly to balance market needs with specialized expertise. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Central Anti-Corruption Court sentenced MP Mohammed al-Jubouri to seven years and ordered repayments tied to illicit enrichment, part of the “Dawn Crackdown.” Business Costs Watch: Caltex raised petrol prices in line with Shell, signaling cost pressures amid regional supply worries. Energy Transit Disruption: Syria reported sabotage on its gas network, raising risks for regional fuel and power corridors.

US-Iraq Withdrawal Shock for Kurdistan: Financial Times reports US troops are set to leave Iraq by Sept. 30, but Kurdistan leader Masrour Barzani calls it “shameful,” warning the region lacks air defence and faces real vulnerability to Iranian drones and missiles. KRG Budget Fight: Erbil says Baghdad has withheld most of its budget share since 2014 and demands its 14.14% census allocation be used for Iraq’s 2027 budget, accusing manipulation of disputed-area counts. Iraq Stock Exchange Links Up Regionally: The Iraq Stock Exchange went live on ADX’s Tabadul platform, letting investors trade Iraqi listings directly and expanding cross-market access across multiple exchanges. Sanctions Hit Air Links: Iraq suspended Iranian flights after US aviation sanctions; Kataib Hezbollah warned it will monitor Iraqi airspace and threatened to shoot down “hostile” aircraft, while the Najaf-Iran route later resumed under a sanctions waiver. Oil Trade Signal: Reports say crude exports through Hormuz bypass routes are back near 80% of pre-conflict levels, easing pressure on regional shipping. Business & Tech: QualityKiosk Technologies won a UiPath 2026 Partner of the Year award; SLB OneSubsea secured a major subsea contract for Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG phase. Security & Economy Pressure: Iraqi Hezbollah brigades threatened to topple PM Ali al-Zaidi if he doesn’t resist the US line on Iranian airlines and air traffic.